WashPo Poll Shows Americans like Obama Energy Policy

We want cap and trade (subscription required - but only a free one), say 52% of Americans... probably if they worded it something like, "would you support a system where companies that pollute beyond certain reasonable thresholds are required to make contributions to a system that invests in renewable energy projects" that 52% might grow. Anyway, this is awesome. Thank you Washington Post, and thank you America for being friggin awesome. Now, Congress, are you listening!?!?!? Seriously! Let's get this cap & trade done, already.

Questions about polling

I've had many conversations over the last month about polls. I've also had a running dialog with myself over the last few days as the election draws closer and closer. My inner conversation has been one whose tone I can describe best by using the term, "caution." My conversations with friends have veered more towards discussion of the remarkable trends you can see in the last month + of polling data compiled in the trends graph from Pollster.com below.



The reason my inner thoughts have veered towards caution is that I'm superstitious and I'm worried. In 2004, I was convinced there was no way America could possibly think more Bush was a good idea, and yet somehow on November 5th I found myself wandering around Washington DC wondering to myself, "wtf???"

Now, 4 years later, it seems clear that Obama is in a much stronger position than Kerry ever was able to establish for himself, but still I am one who will keep his fingers crossed into the evening of November 4th. I'm excited, hopeful and looking at the trends you can see above I am encouraged, but I cannot and do not assume this is in the bag by any means. I'm excited to get into the booth and cast my ballot, and I hope all the other Obama supporters out there are just as pumped up, so that we show up in the record numbers that appear to be turning out already in early voting states.

So Close? or So Far Away?

I was reading through the post yesterday from Venice and I agree with his concern about the strength of poll numbers, the chances that things will look very different in two weeks than they do today, etc. It's an interesting morning to blog about this, what with Obama leaving the campaign trail to be with "Toot," his grandmother. Andrew Sullivan describes their relationship accurately, I think, by saying that if she passes away Obama will in essence be losing, "his last parent." His mother passed a few years back, and his grandfather and father are both gone.

Here are a few of my thoughts on Obama leaving the rallys and hooplah for a couple days, and on the polls and what they mean:

1. Polls: I think there are a couple sites, Five Thirty Eight and Pollster.com in particular that do a good overlap of poll tracking and accompanying analysis. While I understand what Venice is pointing out about the fact that Obama's unprecedented support in some states doesn't necessarily translate to wins there, what I think is worth noting is that maps on both sites listed above calculate whether states are in one column or another (or somewhere between) based on composite poll numbers... hence, not comparison to past performance in a given venue. Below are some of Nate Silver from Five Thirty Eight's thoughts on Saturday's poll numbers and the talk of the race tightening:
   

Between "Joe the Plumber", "spread the wealth", "I'm not George Bush", etc., however, McCain at least now seems to have a few somewhat more constructive talking points (in that sense, the fact that the Ayers attacks went over like a lead balloon at the debate might have done him a favor). So some of those crestfallen conservatives might have moved back into the likely voter universe...

McCain's other problem is that the polls in battleground states have not really tightened at all. Obama gets good numbers today, for instance, in North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Florida. Obama presently has something like a 3:1 advantage in advertising, and most of that advertising is concentrated in battleground states. As such, this may serve as a hedge against any improvements that McCain is able to make elsewhere in the country.

2. Leaving the Trail: I think that Obama's departure for Hawaii at this particular moment is a reasonable thing, something most Americans will understand, and potentially something that the campaign will benefit from. Why? Well, it would seem to me that it would be hard to hit hard at a guy who's currently going home to see his sick grandma for perhaps the last time, but based on the past couple months nothing would surprise me. Perhaps his grandma 0nce had tea with some terrorists and we'll hear about it from some Sarah Palin rally today. Meanwhile, the rallys will go on with Michelle Obama, Clinton, Biden, Richardson, and the whole Democratic support team swooshing in to help out in Barack's absence. I think this whole event will work out to a net neutral for the campaign, even in light of how late on the moment is.
   

How close- or far- is this thing?

There's a bit of chatter this week about how the presidential race is tightening. It's a fair question, but what I've really been wondering is whether Obama was ever as far ahead as he seemed. Last week I remember reading about how some people at the networks were already thinking about an early election night, one in which it would be almost immediately apparent that Obama had won. It's easy to see why. Obama is way ahead nationally and leads in pretty much every swing state. He's even threatening McCain in traditionally Red territory like North Carolina and Indiana. Seems like this thing is over and done with.

The problem with this view is that electoral votes are, generally, an all or nothing affair. Obama might do unbelievably well in North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia and Colorado, but that doesn't he'll actually beat McCain in any of these places. If he doesn't, that will bring the race back to traditonal swing states like Ohio and Florida, where things look more like a normal election. For instance, McCain has respectable, if not necessarily winning, support in Ohio. In other words, Obama's unprecedented strength in Red states could be great as fodder for political discussions and yet still be totally ineffective in terms of actually winning the election. Anyway, what do you all think? Just paranoia?

West Virginia in play?

We've all gotten used to the idea that Virginia is a swing state this election, but there is an even greater surprise regarding the group of states ending with "-irginia." A new poll out today shows Obama comfortably ahead in WEST Virginia. This is probably just a fluke, but if the poll is even remotely accurate this is awfully chilling news for the McCain camp.

The Palin Effect: New Hampshire Edition

Whatever else Palin has going for her, I have always thought she would be a liability in my home state of New Hampshire. Turns out that a couple of polls today have proven me right. At first blush, this might seem a little surprising. Palin is a moose-hunting maverick, right? And New Hampshire is much beloved of both moose and mavericosity. She's a former small town mayor and there are plenty of small towns. But once you go past the superficial appeal, there isn't much left. She's a strong christian conservative in what is ulitimatly a pretty secular state.

She is an obvious gimmick in a state that tends to prefer 'straight-talk" (even if it comes from xenophobic idiots like Pat Buchanan). And while I much enjoy watching moose I have never heard of a mooseburger (and I could have lived quite happily without, thanks). Moose here are mainly something to avoid hitting with your car. I think McCain made a real mistake choosing Palin, but I do look forward to a new generation in which Trig and Piper are popular names.

Nice Polls

Nice indications today from a Diageo/Hotline tracking poll:

Among registered voters surveyed in Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin and Nevada, Obama tops McCain 50 to 40%. Just a week ago, Obama led 45% to 42%.

Nationwide, Obama leads 47% to 41%.

hat tip: political wire

Polls, huh, Good GOD, what are they good for?

I think I've put up at least 3 ______, huh, Good God posts before, but this one I'm pretty excited about, and I think the title is very apt.

I just finished reading a long but interesting and very worthwhile post over at Americablog about polls, why they matter, the current polling, what it tells us, and what folks should anticipate as they look towards this fall's election. There are pieces of what they talk about that make me think all the more that Biden could be a good VP pick, and there are pieces that explain some of the context for where things stand here looking towards the conventions in the next couple weeks.

The bottom line in the article is that basically while this year has been talked about as a potentially transformational or completely new/different kind of election there are many indications that it will be very traditional in many ways. Polling and other indicators seem to show that Obama and McCain will need to fight and fight hard for every vote through the fall, and that we'll likely see the battles shaping up on familiar ground (think Ohio, Florida, etc.).

That said, I think people should continue to push to get new folks excited about engagement in this election. Obama is an electrifying presence, and one that I still believe can turn out flocks of new voters, but only if the campaign and those who already are behind it continue to try and find those new folks, register them, and get them to show up in November. In the meantime, having someone like Biden on the ticket seems (as I said before) like it could really help sure up some of the folks who are searching for depth of experience on a ticket. Blah blah blah... anyway, check out the Americablog post, "Why people should be worried about the polls." It's worth a read.

Zinger VS Burns

Last night I watched a good bit of SNL's the Best of Alec Baldwin, whose presence has been amazing on 30 Rock, no matter what you may think of his voicemail messages and other nasty habits. Some fine laughs were had over the absurdity of the Zinger v.s. Burns skit featuring Seth Meyers and Baldwin. Today, I caught a couple stories out there that struck me as little blogosphere zingers on Camp Clinton... both interesting in their own way.

First, I saw a piece from Andrew Sullivan over at the Atlantic, describing a poll that shows New Jersey democrats, who voted for Hillary by a 10% majority are now demonstrating some buyer's remorse. I think polls like this one are really interesting, especially given how much recent political conversation has been focused on who is electable in the fall.

Then, this afternoon, a piece floated out across the AP wires about how fake Hillary's stop by a gas station was. Wonkette had a nice tongue-in-cheek (surprise there) piece on how hilarious it is for the AP to stress the fakeness of one photo op, when all the campaigns are pretty much daily engaging in little choreographed exhibitions... anyway, whether it's fair or not, I thought the piece was pretty interesting, if only for the fact that they give you a nice portrait of the staging that goes into a "casual visit to a NC gas station."

Is anyone surprised when politicians are playing fake-it-till-ya-make-it? It's old news that a large chunk of America's best informed citizens (or at least best informed young people) tune in more reliably to the fake news than almost any other news source. Still, if the scheduled conversation between BillO and Hillary tonight is any indication, I don't see the Democratic discussion in the next few days veering back towards the land of the sensible. I bet we'll be hearing more about useless "tax vacations" and crazy preachers. YAY!

Does all that sound... jaded? Be not jaded! Laugh at this (Hillary trying to figure out a coffee machine):



Ok... not sure that last one was entirely fair... but it is funny. Promise to you: my next post will be about something entirely apolitical.