Monday, October 27, 2008

Questions about polling

I've had many conversations over the last month about polls. I've also had a running dialog with myself over the last few days as the election draws closer and closer. My inner conversation has been one whose tone I can describe best by using the term, "caution." My conversations with friends have veered more towards discussion of the remarkable trends you can see in the last month + of polling data compiled in the trends graph from below.

The reason my inner thoughts have veered towards caution is that I'm superstitious and I'm worried. In 2004, I was convinced there was no way America could possibly think more Bush was a good idea, and yet somehow on November 5th I found myself wandering around Washington DC wondering to myself, "wtf???"

Now, 4 years later, it seems clear that Obama is in a much stronger position than Kerry ever was able to establish for himself, but still I am one who will keep his fingers crossed into the evening of November 4th. I'm excited, hopeful and looking at the trends you can see above I am encouraged, but I cannot and do not assume this is in the bag by any means. I'm excited to get into the booth and cast my ballot, and I hope all the other Obama supporters out there are just as pumped up, so that we show up in the record numbers that appear to be turning out already in early voting states.

1 comment:

Stamford Talk said...

I'll take your "cautious" and "worried" and raise you a "terrified."

If Palin was not the VP choice, I'd be a little less freaked out at the possibility of a McCain win. But if he can win with someone so clearly unprepared for the job, my faith in this country will really be shaken.

I'd be willing to forgive 1/2 the country for not voting for Obama- to some, he does appear completely disconnected from their life experience- if there was actually a sensible alternative. But there isn't. (I mean, come on, people re-elected Bush, like you said- I would not be shocked if they elected McCain if he had a reputable running mate.)