Questions about polling

I've had many conversations over the last month about polls. I've also had a running dialog with myself over the last few days as the election draws closer and closer. My inner conversation has been one whose tone I can describe best by using the term, "caution." My conversations with friends have veered more towards discussion of the remarkable trends you can see in the last month + of polling data compiled in the trends graph from Pollster.com below.



The reason my inner thoughts have veered towards caution is that I'm superstitious and I'm worried. In 2004, I was convinced there was no way America could possibly think more Bush was a good idea, and yet somehow on November 5th I found myself wandering around Washington DC wondering to myself, "wtf???"

Now, 4 years later, it seems clear that Obama is in a much stronger position than Kerry ever was able to establish for himself, but still I am one who will keep his fingers crossed into the evening of November 4th. I'm excited, hopeful and looking at the trends you can see above I am encouraged, but I cannot and do not assume this is in the bag by any means. I'm excited to get into the booth and cast my ballot, and I hope all the other Obama supporters out there are just as pumped up, so that we show up in the record numbers that appear to be turning out already in early voting states.

"Bring Back the Real McCain"

Having been without an Economist for several weeks, I just finally saw their cover story about McCain. Amazingly, it was written before Sarah Palin was chosen as his running mate, which only makes the argument that McCain has sold out even stronger.

I would have liked to respond to John's post by arguing that McCain hasn't changed, that he's still immune from the far right's influence. I even started a post to that effect. I'm not sure I can. I feel like every day that goes by brings me closer and closer to voting against the man I've so long admired. It's hard to think about.

Perhaps it is not coincidental that McCain is surging in the polls. I have never voted for a winning presidential candidate, which means that Obama should be doing all he can to lose the Me demographic...